🇪🇺 Rearming is rough
Good morning! The Future of Defense Summit nears.
- We've added Gen. Christopher LaNeve, Adm. Daryl Caudle and Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) to the lineup.
- Request an invite ASAP.
🇬🇷 Situational awareness: Greece inked a deal for up to six KC-390 Millennium aircraft made by Embraer. The Hellenic Air Force expects to receive the first next year.
Whoa, there: Talking Taiwan in Hawai'i, hypersonic missiles for the F-16 and a fire at the Savannah River Site.
Today's newsletter is 1,741 words, a 6.5-minute read.
Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios
"European rearmament" is catchy, convenient, clean.
- But the truth, across many capitals, and in the minds and hands of those building factories and weaponry, is far more complicated.
Why it matters: The continent is at a crossroads. Unpredictability gnaws at the relationship to the west with the U.S., and stray Russian missiles and drones arrive on its doorstep to the east.
- While an influx of defense spending is a solid start, many bottlenecks remain, entrenched by regulatory, political, geographical and cultural differences.
Driving the news: This dynamic, and these observations, became clear over the course of several recent interviews, sit-downs and catch-ups, including on Zoom, at an embassy and in the twilight hours of a Washington defense conference.
What they're saying: "Europe no longer lacks money; money isn't the problem. It lacks the ability, I would say, to turn the money into delivered capability quickly," Tobias Billström, the former Swedish foreign affairs minister now at Nordic Air Defense, told me.
- "We lack factories and we lack skilled workers and we lack procurement," he said.
- "We have to think about what we mean when we talk about 'European independence' or 'European sovereignty.' It's one thing to use these words. But the reality shows a different picture."
Zoom in: A Morningstar report published last month found that defense markets are in the initial stage of "a new supercycle" and that European rearmament is a "long-term demand story," as "decades of underinvestment" have left militaries wanting.
Yes, but: The same report warned that the buildup "faces an uneven path" ahead.
- Some countries, like Poland and Latvia, already exceed NATO's 3.5% spending benchmark.
- Many others don't. (Spain last summer rejected the alliance's spending increase as unreasonable, angering President Trump.)
- "Four years ago, defense topics as a whole were much more difficult to get understood by citizens," Hervé Dammann, a Thales executive vice president, told me. "The trajectory is there."
Threat level: War in Ukraine and across the Middle East has forced a rethink of what frontline fighting looks like and what allies abroad are actually capable of.
- What was once effective no longer works; what was once cordial is now confrontational.
The bottom line: "I think people are saying the right things," but there "is less action than there are words," Joakim Sjöblom, the co-founder of SWEBAL, a TNT-making startup, told me.
- "To add another shift in your factory, it's quite low-hanging fruit, and most of the incumbents of industry have already done that. But to raise a new plant, within the bureaucracy of Europe, takes years," he said.
- "Finding the innovation is not necessarily the bottleneck, but reaching industrial manufacturing capacity is really hard."
Go deeper: Ukraine's Starlink woes spur Europe to look for Musk alternatives
Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios
Corridian, a New England-based robo-submarine maker, exited stealth this morning alongside word of its $38 million seed.
The big picture: The startup wants to build the "stealth logistics layer for the undersea," co-founder Mike Guay told me, as "cheap, swarming one-way attack drones and long-range missiles" make the "surface and sky dangerous places to operate."
- Its advisers include naval heavyweights, retired Adm. Lisa Franchetti, retired Vice Adm. Jeffrey Trussler and retired Rear Adm. Milton "Jamie" Sands III among them.
The latest: Corridian plans to unveil its flagship ultra-large autonomous undersea vehicle next year.
- It's designed to carry ISO-standard, containerized payloads long distances without a crew. (That could mean sensors or supplies. That could also mean weapons.)
- "I'd say our platform carries whatever payloads our customers choose. It's a platform in the truest sense," said Guay, a former Army field artillery officer.
- He declined to share additional specs, including how the AUV would be launched.
Friction point: U.S. shipbuilding is in a tough spot. Many of America's highest-priority warships are behind schedule.
- Corridian, though, is adopting "more of an aerospace manufacturing model," according to Guay.
- That means the startup won't "interfere with the critical work of the submarine industrial base, while also leveraging a broad commercial supply chain," he said.
- "We have railroads to move over land. We have shipping to move on the surface. We have rockets into space. But undersea, nothing like that really exists."
Follow the money: Point72 Ventures led the seed, with participation from Balerion Space Ventures, Harpoon Ventures, DCVC and Marlinspike.
- "I've invested in more than 25 companies, and I struggle to think of a more serious, elite team than the founders of Corridian," Stephen Rodriguez, an investor with DCVC, told me.
- "I backed them from the start because when the shooting starts, anything observable is gone."
What's next: Corridian expects to double its workforce over the next year.
Go deeper: Navy dishes out $76 billion for Virginia and Columbia subs
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
U.S. Army Pacific is preparing for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and beyond, aligning with what has for years been known as the Davidson window.
Why it matters: The Beijing-Taipei relationship is among the most closely watched in Washington — and could quickly devolve into a bloodbath.
Driving the news: USARPAC commander Gen. Ronald Clark was asked last week about military readiness in the Indo-Pacific and if the Davidson window was still valid.
- "The answer for us at USARPAC is 'yes,'" he said, onstage at the TechNet Indo-Pacific conference in Hawai'i.
- "Again, it's not a date that we think conflict will happen — it is a period of time for which we're snapping the chalk line to say we need to be ready by," he added.
- "We'll continue to prepare. We'll continue to modernize. We'll continue to posture ourselves for the business of deterring war well beyond '27."
Context: China regards Taiwan as a renegade province and seeks control over the self-governing island.
- The Davidson window, meanwhile, is named for retired Adm. Phil Davidson, the former head of Indo-Pacific Command, who in 2021 warned lawmakers of Beijing's buildup and ambitions.
The intrigue: Clark was Davidson's chief of staff during the now-hallowed exchange.
- "We didn't know it was the Davidson window; somebody else came up with that," Clark said. "But I was, literally, in the headquarters with him, and part of the team that helped prepare for the testimony."
Friction point: The Trump administration has previously held up arms deliveries to Taiwan.
More from Axios:
How friends and foes are converging on the Philippines
Drills, deals and doubts in the Pacific as Trump visits China
What to expect of a Trump-Xi-Putin nuke meeting — if it happens
A MESSAGE FROM NORTHROP GRUMMAN
The Integrated Battle Command System links sensors and weapons together so commanders can rapidly track and defeat complex threats. Northrop Grumman’s growing IBCS production for the U.S. and its allies bolsters high skill jobs and the American economy.
The Blackbeard hypersonic missile. Photo: Courtesy of Castelion
Castelion received the green light to work its Blackbeard hypersonic weapon onto the widely used F-16, newer versions of which are expected to fly well into the 2030s and 2040s.
Why it matters: The venture-backed missile maker's portfolio is growing rapidly across air, land and sea.
Driving the news: Castelion revealed the F-16 contracting update Oct. 26 on X.
- A spokesperson declined to share additional details.
My thought bubble: More than two dozen countries operate the F-16, making this market potentially huge. And Castelion previously secured money for defense exportability design modifications.
How it works: Hypersonic weapons zip at speeds greater than Mach 5, traveling miles in seconds.
- Russia and China are thought to hold the advantage here.
Flashback: Chief executive Bryon Hargis months ago told me there are plans to produce thousands of Blackbeard missiles annually.
- It's "all aboutscaling out an enormous production capacity," he told me at the time.
Go deeper: Castelion's Blackbeard missile will fly on F/A-18
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Northwood Space raised $375 million in Series C funding that valued the Torrance, California-based satellite antenna builder and ground station provider at $2 billion.
Why it matters: Modern, fortified infrastructure on Earth becomes more crucial for commercial, civil and military missions as the number of satellites in orbit swells.
- There were just shy of 3,500 operational satellites in 2020. Today, that number has skyrocketed to more than 17,000, per the American Enterprise Institute's space data.
The Savannah River Site, as seen from space in 2021. Photo: HUM Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
🏥 One person was injured in a fire at the Savannah River National Laboratory, part of the Savannah River Site in South Carolina. Workers were initially ordered to shelter in place. Radiological surveys found no contamination.
- Why it matters: This is a rare incident at one of America's most consequential nuke-producing installations. (Expect few follow-up details.)
- 💭 My thought bubble: People need to chill on X. So, so, so much misinformation and fearmongering.
🛒 Salesforce is buying Rune Technologies — but did not say for how much.
- Why it matters: It's being billed as Salesforce's "most significant national security-focused acquisition." Rune is already working with the U.S. Army and Marine Corps.
- 💭 My thought bubble: My colleague Chris Metinko with Pro Deals has the full story, here.
🏭 BWX Technologies and Antares struck a multiyear agreement for production of tri-structural isotropic nuclear fuel. It will be made at the former's Lynchburg, Virginia, facility.
- Why it matters: "We achieved criticality with BWXT fuel, and it's what will power our electricity-producing reactor, Mark-1, in 2027," Antares CEO Jordan Bramble said in a statement.
- 💭 My thought bubble: I visited BWXT and took a peek at Project Pele in September. More, here.
💵 Re:Build said it secured $2.1 billion in new funding. The investment was led by General Catalyst and JPMorgan Chase's Strategic Investment Group.
- Why it matters: "The products and companies emerging from our ecosystem prove we can help restore America's industrial might," co-founder Jeff Wilke said in a statement.
- 💭 My thought bubble: Co-founder Miles Arnone will join us onstage Nov. 19 at the Future of Defense Summit in Washington!
Hello, Little Rock! Photo: Claret Alcala Photography/via Northwest Arkansas Council
I had a blast last week in Little Rock, Arkansas, where I helped moderate the Onward FX conference.
The big picture: Here, Fortune's Allie Garfinkle and I get grilled by Haus founder Daniel Oberhaus.
My spiciest takes from the talk?
- Spell my name right in your pitch, bare minimum.
- You're not a "market leader" if everyone else is, too.
Zoom out: Don't forget to check in with our local newsroom!
A MESSAGE FROM NORTHROP GRUMMAN
No next-gen fighter jet, drone, or missile flies without advanced microelectronics. Northrop Grumman makes millions in the U.S. each year, building domestic capacity and a more resilient supply chain. FORTITUDE™ shows what that capability can deliver: more power, speed and performance.
Shoutout to Jeffrey Cane for editing and Matt Piper for copy editing.
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