Bird flu in mink, measles double last year, SNAP at an all time low.
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Bird flu in mink, measles double last year, SNAP at an all time low.
The Dose (October 27)
Happy Halloween week! Which means tiny goblins running around (and, to fellow parents—there are ways to stay sane and keep Halloween’s magic alive without letting sugar or guilt haunt us).
Here’s what’s happening in the world of health: measles rates are now more than double last year’s, flu continues to make its mark early (including a concerning bird flu outbreak), and CDC expects a winter about as heavy as last season’s for respiratory viruses. In this week’s spotlight, SNAP cuts are reaching school lunch lines and why your state matters.
Let’s dive in.
Health “weather” report
Measles: the case count is now more than double last year
If we need another sign the U.S. is going backward in health, here it is. The CDC is adding cases at a 4% weekly rate, bringing the 2026 total to 4,588. That’s double the 2025 total and the highest official case count since 1991.
Pennsylvania remains the epicenter, with 1,338 cases (less than 1% vaccinated), and the outbreak has now spilled into New York. As YLE Northeast covered last week, the outbreak seems to be slowing.
Other outbreaks include: Ohio, Wisconsin, and Kentucky. A lot of eyes are also on Indiana, which just reported a 63% case increase in one week (40 cases to 65 cases, which is very high).
All of this comes just weeks before the Pan American Health Organization decides whether the U.S. has lost its measles elimination status, which it has held since 2000. In practice, we won’t notice the official change in status on the ground. Instead, we will see more outbreaks, more illnesses, and more hospitalizations. The key point about elimination status is that, even though it’s just a label, it means measles has been spreading in the U.S. continuously for at least a year.
Respiratory viruses: a mixed bag
Flu (specifically the number of people testing positive) has now overtaken Covid-19 in every region of the country. Covid-19 is mostly holding steady or dipping, and RSV is just starting to wake up. Where you live matters: flu and Covid-19 are highest in the West, while RSV is rising first in the South.
Still, national activity is relatively low: all three will grow through the end of winter. CDC expects this winter’s combined Covid-19, flu, and RSV hospital peak to land within 20% of last season’s. In other words, they expect a season about as heavy as last winter’s.
But that depends on how many people get vaccinated. I'm concerned that the CDC hasn’t posted its vaccination rate data. This is unusually late. I hope they do this soon, or more people should start asking questions.
What this means for you: Get your fall vaccines.
Bird flu is waking up with less infrastructure support
Bird flu—a type of influenza virus that mostly spreads among birds and, increasingly, mammals (remember the dairy cow outbreak that started in 2024)—is stirring. This fall uptick is expected for two reasons:
Like human flu, bird flu spreads more easily among animals when it’s cooler.
Migrating wild birds carry the virus, and they move in the fall and spring.
So you can expect more news about this in the coming months. Nine dairy herds are infected, and one dairy worker is recovering at home in Washington. Several large flocks have been detected and culled (killed) because of infections, as we’re seeing in Illinois, South Dakota, and North Dakota.
One animal outbreak is concerning, though. ProPublica reported that bird flu spread on a Utah mink farm for the past two months without being detected. There are two red flags here:
Mink. Mink airways carry receptors similar to the ones in the human nose and throat, which human flu viruses can use to cause infection. This means mink can catch both bird flu and human flu. If both types of flu virus infect the same cell at the same time, the viruses can swap genes and produce something new (that could cause a pandemic). Mink outbreaks have happened before: bird flu spread mink-to-mink on a Spanish farm in 2022, and Danish mink passed Covid-19 back to people.
No response. State agriculture officials have known about this outbreak since mid-August. But USDA says it doesn’t regulate mink, the animals weren’t culled, and workers weren’t monitored. One worker reportedly had a red eye, the most common sign of human bird flu infection, and wasn’t tested. Local health officials hadn’t heard about the outbreak until ProPublica called. This is very concerning.
Why does this matter? Bird flu is one thing that keeps epidemiologists up at night. Flu mutates quickly and can easily swap genes with other flu viruses, which could spark a pandemic. Slowly but surely, bird flu has been creeping up the chain toward a pandemic (from wild birds to mammals to sporadic human cases; see figure below). Ongoing infrastructure and surveillance problems certainly worsen the odds by catching concerning signs more slowly.
What this means for you: The risk to the general public remains low. Still, birds get sick more often this time of year, and humans will interact with these birds both in the wild (hunting) and in the backyard (backyard flocks). A few steps can help keep you safe, including those who have backyard flocks and bird feeders, and hunters. (Scroll to the bottom here for what to do.)
Spotlight: SNAP cuts are reaching school cafeterias; where you live determines how
My daughter’s school friend was at our place recently, and the kids were talking about how great weekends are. He said, matter-of-factly, “I like school days because there’s lunch.”
His family relies on SNAP to keep groceries in the house. But across the country, families like his are losing that help. Research shows SNAP effectively lifts families out of poverty, reduces food insecurity, and supports local economies.
But in the past year, SNAP participation has fallen by more than 5 million, including about 2 million children. Enrollment is now at a 17-year low, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which points to the 2025 federal budget reconciliation law’s historic SNAP cuts and tighter eligibility rules as likely contributors to the decline.
SNAP enrollment typically ebbs and flows. But SNAP enrollment usually falls when the economy improves. This isn’t what’s happening here. This decline isn’t driven by a recovering economy, though. Fewer families receiving help doesn’t mean fewer need it.
How SNAP connects to school meals
I live in California, one of about nine states where public school students can receive free meals regardless of income or SNAP status, so our friend’s lunch is safe-ish from SNAP cuts. In most other states, the cuts are reaching the lunch line.
Children in SNAP households automatically qualify for free school meals. SNAP enrollment also drives eligibility and federal reimbursement under the Community Eligibility Provision (CEP), which lets schools serve free meals to all students without the need for household applications.
In most states without universal free meals (gray states below), more families face a lunch bill. As SNAP enrollment falls, schools may lose CEP eligibility or get too little reimbursement to keep meals free for everyone. Families must then apply individually, and according to theWashington Post, schools often end up with growing unpaid meal debt.
In universal-meal states (green states below), the bill moves. States like California, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and New York guarantee free meals but rely on federal funding to partially foot the bill. For example, California requires high-poverty schools to use CEP and covers the gap. Fewer CalFresh (California SNAP) enrollees means less federal money and higher state costs.
Why it matters
This is a terrifying problem. For kids like my daughter’s friend, school meals are the most nutritious source of food in their daily diets, and universal free meals are linked to better diet quality, food security, attendance and academic performance.
But even generous states cover only breakfast and lunch, about 180 days a year. School meals work alongside SNAP, which helps put food on the table at dinner, on weekends, and throughout the summer.
What this means for you: How kids in your neighborhood are affected depends on your state and how it responds to growing budget pressures. As federal changes strain SNAP and Medicaid funding, states face difficult decisions about supporting food assistance, health care, and other essential services.
For families: Children who lose SNAP may still qualify for free or reduced-price meals based on income. Meal eligibility already established generally continues through the school year. Contact your school’s nutrition services office for guidance. For help applying for SNAP, contact your local food bank or state SNAP office.
To help: Ask your district whether it accepts donations toward unpaid meal balances or offers another way to support students. You can also contact your local food bank to ask what it needs most. Financial donations give food banks flexibility to purchase needed foods, generate more meals, support operations, and reduce food waste.
Good news
A new melanoma vaccine has become the first mRNA cancer vaccine to succeed in a Phase 3 trial. The vaccine uses mRNA to teach the immune system to recognize the unique mutations in an individual’s tumor, so T cells can hunt down leftover cancer cells after surgery, while a therapy called Keytruda keeps those T cells from being switched off. The companies announced in August that the trial worked but didn’t share any numbers; the New England Journal of Medicine has now accepted the full results for publication. Keytruda, the standard drug for patients whose melanoma has been surgically removed, was already known to cut the risk of the cancer returning by about 43%. Adding the personalized vaccine further lowered the risk of recurrence or death by 42% compared with Keytruda alone. It isn’t approved by FDA yet, but this is hopeful news for patients. (Washington Post)
Former NOAA employees have revived the ENSO blog that explained El Niño in plain language. The blog went dark in June 2025 after federal budget cuts let staff go at climate.gov, the website that hosted it. But former employees launched a new version of the site, climate.us. This is just in time for a likely Super El Niño this winter.
Bottom line
Little goblins are scary. Gaps in our surveillance systems are scarier, but there’s a lot we can do as individuals. Stay healthy out there, and we’ll be back with more soon.
Love, YLE
A big thanks to Megan Maisano, MS, RDN—YLE Nutritional contributor—for drafting the SNAP section. And for Dr. Liz Marnik’s—immunologist— subject matter expertise in the bird flu section.
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