B|E Brief: Where America’s Rapidly Growing Hispanic Electorate Could Shape the Midterms

B|E Brief: Where America’s Rapidly Growing Hispanic Electorate Could Shape the Midterms

Clearly, Hispanic voters will be an important part of the electoral landscape in the 2026 governor’s, U.S. Senate and U.S. House races, particularly in Texas, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Florida, Colorado and California.

The political significance of the Hispanic electorate extends beyond its population size. Hispanic voters are geographically concentrated in some of America’s most closely watched Congressional districts. Recent surveys show meaningful differences in their voting preferences across states, regions and age groups, as well as differences between how they voted in 2024 and how they’re expected to vote now.

How Large Is The Hispanic Electorate?

Pew Research Center’s September 2026 analysis, using 2024 American Community Survey data, identifies approximately 36 million Hispanic eligible voters nationally. California, Texas and Florida have the largest Hispanic eligible-voter populations.

These figures explain why Hispanic political participation deserves attention in both statewide and Congressional races. However, a high Hispanic population share does not automatically mean an election will be closely contested.

Gubernatorial Races …

Arizona

Katie Hobbs (D) vs. Andy Biggs (R) - Phoenix, Tucson, Maricopa and Pima counties

Nevada

Joe Lombardo (R) vs. Aaron Ford (D) - Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Clark County and Reno

New Mexico

Deb Haaland (D) vs. Greggory Hull (R) - Albuquerque, Las Cruces, Santa Fe, Rio Arriba and Doña Ana counties

Texas

Greg Abbott (R) vs. Gina Hinojosa (D) - Rio Grande Valley, San Antonio, Houston, El Paso and Dallas–Fort Worth

Florida

Byron Donalds (R) vs. David Jolly (D) - Miami-Dade, Orlando, Tampa and Central Florida

Colorado

Phil Weiser (D) vs. Victore Marx (R) - Denver, Adams County, Aurora, Pueblo and southern Colorado

California

Xavier Becerra (D) vs. Steve Hilton (R) - Los Angeles, Inland Empire, Central Valley and Orange County

New York

Kathy Hochul (D) vs. Bruce Blakeman (R) - Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn, northern Manhattan and parts of Long Island

What Texas Reveals

This week, N+ Univision released a statewide Texas survey conducted with YouGov. The poll included 1,000 registered Texas voters and an additional sample of 980 Hispanic registered voters.

Among surveyed Hispanic voters:

The poll also found regional differences. Abbott led among Hispanic respondents in North Texas, while Hinojosa had stronger Hispanic support in Central Texas and elsewhere.

These are polling measurements, not election results. This demonstrates why the Hispanic electorate should not be treated as a single, politically uniform voting bloc.

Senate Races …

Some states have relatively large Hispanic electorates in relation to Senate contests in 2026, while others have smaller Hispanic populations but potentially competitive statewide elections.

Texas

James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R) - Rio Grande Valley, El Paso, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas and Fort Worth

Florida

Ashley Moody (R) vs. Angie Nixon (D) - Miami-Dade, Orange, Osceola, Hillsborough and Broward counties

Colorado

John Hickenlooper (D-incumbent) vs. Mark Baisley (R) - Denver metro, Adams County, Pueblo and southern Colorado

New Mexico

Ben Ray Luján (D-incumbent) vs. Larry Marker (R) - Albuquerque, Las Cruces, Santa Fe and northern New Mexico

New Jersey

Cory Booker (D-incumbent) vs. Justin Murphy (R) - Hudson, Passaic, Essex, Union and Middlesex counties

Illinois

Juliana Stratton (D) vs. Don Tracy (R) - Chicago, suburban Cook County, DuPage and Kane counties

Kansas

Adam Hamilton (D) vs. Roger Marshall (R-incumbent) - Wichita, Kansas City, the Johnson County suburbs, Topeka, and southwestern Kansas

North Carolina

Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R) - Charlotte, Raleigh–Durham and the state’s growing suburban communities

Texas: A Case Study

The October 27 N+ Univision–YouGov survey found the following among Hispanic registered voters …

The same poll found that 56% of Hispanic respondents believed immigration enforcement had gone too far, while 62% favored pursuing both border security and a pathway to citizenship for long-term undocumented immigrants. Economic concerns were also prominent: 63% selected groceries as a top source of financial pressure. These findings underscore why it is important to examine Hispanic voters’ specific policy priorities rather than assume uniform views on immigration, the economy or political affiliation.

House Races …

Congressional races offer some of the clearest examples of the numerical significance of Hispanic voters because their share of the electorate can be much higher in individual districts than statewide. Per the recent survey from Unidos US …

South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley

TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34 each have Hispanic-majority voting-age populations. The area’s voting preferences have attracted particular attention because of changes observed between recent election cycles

California’s Central Valley

CA-13 and CA-22 each have Hispanic-majority citizen voting-age populations. Immigration, agricultural employment, water policy and affordability are among the substantive issues relevant to these communities.

Southern Nevada

Hispanic citizens represent approximately one-quarter of the voting-age population in NV-01 and NV-04. Clark County also makes this region important for Nevada’s governor’s race.

Colorado’s 8th District

CO-08 includes rapidly growing communities north of Denver. With a Hispanic citizen voting-age share of approximately 30%, this district offers a significant case study of suburban voting patterns.

Why Is Hispanic Voter Turnout So Important?

These questions are worth following on election night.

• Do Hispanic voters participate at rates similar to, above or below 2022 and 2024?

• Are voting patterns different in border communities, metropolitan suburbs, agricultural regions and major cities?

• Do younger Hispanic voters show different candidate preferences from older voters?

• How do affordability, employment, immigration, education and healthcare relate to actual voting choices?

• Do voters support candidates from different parties for governor, Senate and House?

Recent polling shows significant variation within the electorate, including across regions of Texas.

Implications For 2026

Statewide gubernatorial elections: Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas and Florida illustrate different circumstances in which Hispanic voters constitute a substantial portion of the electorate. California is particularly important because of the sheer size of its Hispanic electorate.

U.S. Senate elections: Texas, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and New Jersey have especially relevant Hispanic population centers and active 2026 Senate contests. Their statewide political environments differ significantly.

U.S. House elections: The districts worth examining most closely for the combination of substantial Hispanic populations and competitive ratings include TX-15, TX-34, CA-22, NM-02, CO-08, CA-48 and AZ-06.

The 2026 elections offer a major opportunity to understand whether the shifts in Hispanic voting preferences observed in 2024 persist, reverse or vary by region. The evidence available one week before Election Day definitely shows that Hispanic voters cannot be characterized as uniformly supporting one party or sharing a single set of political priorities.

© 2026 Charles Ellison
The B|E Note, Attn: Charles Ellison, Publisher
[email protected]