B|E Brief: Where Exactly Will Black Voters Be Critical In Next Week’s Midterms?
Black voters will have substantial influence on the 2026 elections for governor, U.S. Senate and U.S. House—particularly in Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and several Southern states.
The importance of the Black electorate goes beyond its traditional support for Democratic candidates. Three factors matter: the number of eligible Black voters, their actual turnout, and how closely divided the overall electorate is.
A particularly important example is Georgia, where Black voters constitute 31.5% of eligible voters while both the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat are being contested. A recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll found that 88% of surveyed Black voters supported Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms.
Demographics
The distinction between size and influence is important. Mississippi has a larger Black share of its eligible electorate than Michigan, but that alone does not establish how consequential Black voters will be to a particular election. Competitiveness, participation and voter choices across the entire electorate also matter.
Governor’s Races …
These races merit examination because of competitive statewide contests, substantial Black electorates, or historically significant candidates. They do not all have the same degree of competitiveness.
Georgia
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) vs. Rick Jackson (R)
Black voters represent nearly one-third of the eligible electorate. Bottoms would become the country’s first elected Black woman governor.
Michigan
Jocelyn Benson (D) vs. John James (R)
Detroit and other Southeast Michigan communities contribute an important share of statewide votes. James is a Black Republican nominee.
Wisconsin
David Crowley (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R)
Milwaukee is central to analyzing Black voting participation in a relatively closely contested state. Crowley is a Black gubernatorial nominee.
Ohio
Amy Acton (D) vs. Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
Black voters in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Dayton contribute to the statewide electorate.
Nevada
Aaron Ford (D) vs. Joe Lombardo (R)
Black voters are 9.4% of eligible voters, with important concentrations in Clark County. Ford is a Black Democratic nominee.
Florida
David Jolly (D) vs. Byron Donalds (R)
Florida has approximately 2.3 million eligible Black voters. Donalds is a Black Republican nominee.
Texas
Gina Hinojosa (D) vs. Greg Abbott (R)
Approximately 2.7 million eligible Black voters, the largest number in any state.
Pennsylvania
Josh Shapiro (D) vs. Stacy Garrity (R)
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are substantial centers of Black voting participation.
(Note: Maryland's governor's race has major implications for Black political representation, with incumbent Gov. Wes Moore seeking another term in a state where 30% of eligible voters are Black. But a large Black electorate does not automatically make a statewide election closely contested.)
U.S. Senate Races …
Of the Senate races occurring in 2026, the following combine noteworthy Black electorates with contests drawing national attention.
Georgia
Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Mike Collins (R)
31.5% - Black participation is a large component of statewide turnout in a contest involving an incumbent Democrat.
North Carolina
Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R)
20.3% - Black voters form approximately one-fifth of the eligible electorate in an open-seat election.
Michigan
Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
12.6% - Detroit-area participation matters in an open-seat contest.
Mississippi
Cindy Hyde Smith (R) vs. Scott Colom (D)
40% - The Jackson metropolitan area, the Mississippi Delta, the northern Mississippi suburbs of Memphis, and the Gulf Coast is where Black turnout will be crucial.
Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)
11.3% - Urban Black voting patterns are relevant in a special Senate election.
Texas
James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)
13.1% - The state’s large Black population makes participation consequential, alongside Hispanic and other voting groups.
South Carolina
Annie Andrews (D) vs. Lindsey Graham (R)
23.6% - A large Black electorate, especially relevant to understanding turnout, even though statewide competitiveness differs from Georgia or North Carolina.
A notable feature of this cycle is that Georgia and Michigan have Senate elections and gubernatorial elections on the same ballot. This helps to understand whether Black voters support different candidates for different offices, rather than assuming straight-ticket voting. Georgia's recent polling already reveals differences in candidate support among independents even where Black voter support for the two Democratic nominees is similar.
U.S. House Races …
House races require a more geographically precise analysis than statewide contests. District boundaries, especially those changed through mid-decade redistricting, affect both the size and distribution of the Black electorate.
NC-01
Don Davis (D) vs. Laurie Buckhout (R)
Northeastern North Carolina; a competitive rematch following redistricting that shifted some Black communities into other districts.
AL-02
Shomari Figures (D) vs. Rhett Marques (R)
A major voting-rights and redistricting contest. Cook moved its rating toward a more competitive classification on October 23.
VA-02
Jen Kiggans (R) vs. Elaine Luria (D)
Hampton Roads; an October Christopher Newport University poll recorded 84% support for Luria among surveyed Black voters.
OH-13
Emilia Sykes (D) vs. Carey Coleman (R)
Akron–Canton area; Black voters remain relevant to district-wide turnout in a redrawn district.
MI-07
Tom Barrett (R) vs. Will Lawrence
A closely contested central Michigan district where local voting patterns warrant attention, although Black voters are a smaller share than in Detroit-area districts.
PA-07 / PA-08
Ryan Mackenzie (R) vs. Bob Brooks (D) / Rob Bresnahan (R) vs. Paige Cognetti (D)
Competitive eastern and northeastern Pennsylvania races, where Black turnout should be assessed alongside larger suburban and working-class electorates.
North Carolina’s 1st District: Redistricting altered a historically Black-represented district. The 2024 contest between Davis and Buckhout was decided by approximately 1.7 percentage points under the previous district boundaries. That creates an important case study of how boundary changes and voting participation interact.
Alabama’s 2nd District: Redistricting also changed the partisan makeup of this district. Reporting on October 23 documents that the Cook Political Report shifted its assessment from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. This is an especially useful race for studying Black political representation and the effects of congressional redistricting.
Broader Implications …
Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan have Senate races where Black voters constitute substantial shares of the voting-age electorate and national attention is focused on Senate control.
In addition. Black candidates are running for governor in multiple states and across both major political parties. Eight Black major-party nominees are on gubernatorial ballots this year, an unprecedented number.
Third, redistricting has changed the political landscape in several congressional districts, especially in the South. This raises important questions about how Black voters exercise political influence when district boundaries change.
(Next: A Hispanic voter analysis is scheduled this Friday, October 30th)
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© 2026 Charles Ellison
The B|E Note, Attn: Charles Ellison, Publisher
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