The IPO backlog is a myth
VC
đź”The revenue figures in Anthropic’s amended S-1 match our estimates to the dollar. Q3 revenue came in at $16.96 billion against the $16.9 billion we implied from the original filing’s disclosure, and commitments due before 2031 came in at $447.5 billion, just under the $450 billion line we set. Read our analysis of the company’s IPO filing.
Venture has spent three years waiting for the IPO window to reopen, with $6 trillion now tied up in US unicorns alone. The hope is that when the window does reopen, a backlog of IPO-ready companies that have been patiently waiting for years will rush out in a wave and finally return capital to LPs.
Our research argues that this “IPO backlog” is little more than a myth.
- PitchBook’s VC Time to Exit Predictor, which estimates when individual VC-backed companies are likely to exit, gave 254 US companies better-than-even odds of going public by the end of 2025.
- Only 53 did, and just 58 still look likely to list in the next three years.
Nearly 75% of the backlog has raised new funding since 2023, mostly at higher valuations, and deals at Databricks and Scale AI paid out employees and early investors without a listing.
The market they were waiting for has also moved on. AI has put pure-play software companies under pressure to prove their value, while a new generation of AI companies, led by Anthropic, has jumped to the front of the line.
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The AI boom’s biggest beneficiaries may not write software at all.
A recent PitchBook research note maps how the mad dash to build more data centers is channeling private capital into areas such as gas pipelines, fire suppression systems, and even cargo freighters.
Investment in these related markets have ballooned: The combined VC, PE, and M&A investment across data center-exposed companies reached $64.4 billion in 2025, roughly 37x 2016’s total.
To further guide investors, our analysts assembled a list of more than 1,000 data center-exposed companies for PitchBook customers, and we’re offering a free preview of 100 companies to all readers.
- Unknown hackers are still targeting supermarket fridges in Europe. A second wave of attacks hit on Monday across several countries, forcing staff to throw away spoiled food. Freezers at one store in Stockholm reached 50 degrees Celsius. [Reuters]
- This online school operator has received over $1 billion from Texas taxpayers over the last five years as online enrollment has surged since the pandemic, but students are slipping through the cracks and getting left behind. [Bloomberg]
- In their second season of existence, the Golden State Valkyries are WNBA champions. Despite growing pains, the Valkyries defeated the Atlanta Dream in Game 7, cheered on by a growing, purple-clad fanbase. [The Wall Street Journal]
OpenAI has secured $11 billion for its latest funding round, less than half of its $30 billion target, The Wall Street Journal reported. The Financial Times reported that the company reduced the target funding amount in the round by $10 billion.
Baseten, the developer of an AI inference platform, is raising a new round led by Sands Capital at a $30 billion valuation, Bloomberg reported.
Northwood Space, which specializes in infrastructure for satellite networks, secured a $375 million Series C led by Andreessen Horowitz and DFJ Growth at a $2 billion valuation.
Hypersonica, a European startup developing long-range hypersonic missiles, raised €100 million in a Series B led by Lightspeed and General Catalyst,valuing the Munich-based company at roughly €700 million, the Financial Times reported.
Robotics company Tutor Intelligence raised a $75 million Series B led by Andreessen Horowitz.
Biotech Specific Biologics, which develops gene-editing therapies for genetic diseases, raised a $35 million Series A led by Hatteras Venture Partners.
Larridin, the developer of an AI value measurement platform, secured a $30 million Series A led by Pelion Ventures.
Clinical data platform developer NPhase secured a $30 million Series D led by Viking Global Investors.
Fintech startup Pathfinder, which operates a platform for managing Education Savings Account funds, raised a $12 million Series A led by Portage Ventures.
Clark, the developer of AI employees for CPA companies, raised an $11 million seed round led by Touring Capital.
Vista Equity Partners- and Elliott Investment Management-backed Cloud Software Group is offering senior secured notes to refinance $2 billion of debt.
SoftBank-backed fintech OPay, which operates a payments platform in Nigeria, halted its IPO due to a regulatory inquiry.
Shopify-backed retail wholesale startup Faire is considering an IPO in the next year, Fortune reported. The company was last valued at $5.2 billion.
Mahle and Schott Pharma, both German industrial companies, are separately exploring IPOs of their Indian operations that could raise up to $400 million each, Bloomberg reported.
Omen AI, which develops tools to monitor cooling fluids in data centers, agreed to acquire peer Aquatic Labs, which is backed by Future Planet Capital, in a $16 million deal.
Interlock Equity exited data and AI services company Lovelytics to CDW.
Housing rewards startup Bilt agreed to acquire Adobe-backed Lava, the developer of a customer engagement platform across sports, entertainment and retail businesses.
London-based Igneo Infrastructure Partners closed European Diversified Infrastructure Fund IV on its €6 billion hard cap.
Churchill Asset Management closed on $1.54 billion for the third fund in its Junior Capital Opportunities program, which invests in junior debt for middle-market businesses.
Stockholm-based VC firm Creandumclosed its eighth fund, which backs founders from pre-seed to Series A, on $750 million.
Apollo Global Management launched a €10 billion European private credit platform with backers including the Abu Dhabi Investment Council.
Eurazeo is partnering with the Sustainable Markets Initiative and Bank of America to launch the Lighthouse Initiative, which aims to invest private capital in global nature and biodiversity opportunities.
Median real estate IRRs have been declining since the global financial crisis rebound, with successive vintages getting worse from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s.
Read more: Q1 2026 PitchBook Benchmarks
