Anthropic's long shadow
VC
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Plus: A map of the data center dash, Anthropic’s looming shadow on the AI market and more⬇️
For years, the private market has had little clarity on how to price the AI companies now riding a wave of unprecedented growth. And for better or worse, Anthropic is about to change all of that with its Wall Street debut coming in November.
On the upside, it’s going to be a whole new ballgame for investors when it comes to price transparency after making the best of the private market’s opaque means of valuation.
Whether in primary funding rounds or in trading secondhand shares, private investors today rely on intricate channels and negotiation to reach consensus on valuing any company, let alone on those in the fast-moving AI industry category of frontier labs. Daily, real-time data and regular financial reporting by a market leader will set a new standard, despite economics that are still untested.
On the other hand, the sudden unleashing of publicly available data and analysis also raises the stakes, putting pressure on the AI companies to keep up. Expectations will be much higher, and they will come from a vastly larger contingent: the broader investing public.
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For biopharma VCs, checks started clearing again in 2026. Q3’s $15.3 billion in exit value is the second-highest quarterly total since 2022. And with a quarter still to go, 2026 has already logged 1.8x the exit value of all of 2025.
Even as a reopened IPO window produced back-to-back record offerings, M&A is still doing the heavy lifting, accounting for 63% of the 2026.
Big Pharma is paying up for VC-backed companies: The median acquisition value has climbed to nearly $820 million, the highest in our dataset.
That appetite stems from the looming patent cliff, which puts hundreds of billions in revenue at risk as blockbuster drugs lose exclusivity. But VC-backed biotechs are typically years from generating revenue, so they do little to fill that near-term gap. Instead, pharma is racing to own the next generation of cell therapy, while Eli Lilly is diversifying its portfolio using their GLP-1 windfall.
But there are signs of a wobble, as acquisition activity slowed in Q3, and public biotech indices slipped from August highs. All eyes are on whether M&A picks back up, but exits are only half the story.
- Blackstone is powering up the new “anti-Starbucks” coffee chain. Helped along by TikTok trends, 7 Brew is rapidly expanding and taking bites out of Starbucks, Dunkin’ and Dutch Bros in the US coffee market. [Bloomberg]
- These battery-powered, autonomous trucks are the future of mining. The vehicles can operate in some of the world’s harshest conditions, from cold Mongolian winters to 110-degree heat in Western Australia. [The Wall Street Journal]
- Read how hackers pulled off the biggest heist in crypto history. Starting last Thursday evening, hackers siphoned about $6.3 billion across Binance wallets—and multiple firms think those responsible are from North Korea. [Wired]
Dulo, a startup co-founded by Sebastian Thrun developing AI models for engineering, raised a $130 million seed round from investors including former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, Kleiner Perkins’ John Doerr and DST Global, The Information reported.
Israel-based cybersecurity startup Cyera is in talks to raise a new round at a $20 billion valuation, The Information reported.
Biotech Setara Biosciences, which develops treatments for severe rare diseases, secured a $90 million Series A from investors including Deerfield Management, Canaan and Droia Ventures.
Singapore-based Oxus Metals AI, which develops AI for discovering critical minerals, raised a $36 million round at a $180 million valuation.
TrashLab, the developer of an AI operating system for waste services, secured a $12 million round led by Ventana.
Neuron Industries, a startup building an industrial control AI system, raised a $10 million seed round led by FCVC and Obvious Ventures.
OPay, a SoftBank-backed payments company focused on services in Nigeria, raised $304 million in its US IPO.
Bambusa Therapeutics, an RA Capital Management-backed biotech developing treatments for immunological and inflammatory conditions, raised $168.9 million in its IPO.
Aspen Neuroscience, a biotech focused on neurodegenerative disease backed by OrbiMed, raised $140.6 million in its IPO.
Crypto exchange operator Binance, which is backed by VC investors including BTX Capital, was hit by a security breach that compromised about $6.3 billion in assets held in users’ crypto wallets.
AI and data companies dominate venture secondaries, with 90% of annualized volume on Caplight tied to data, AI, or startups that recently closed a primary or secondary round. Broker Rainmaker Securities says investor interest is widening to established fintech, defense, and prediction market players. Those themes and PitchBook’s new Time to Exit tool shaped our list of the next top 10 startups in venture secondaries.
Read more: Q3 2026 US VC Secondary Market Watch
