SpaceX lessons: Late money loses
VC
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SpaceX’s IPO cut secondary volume 9% to $110.7 billion in annualized value, but the bigger story is who benefited, our latest US VC Secondary Market Watch explains.
Just 28% of investors who bought SpaceX in 2026, after the IPO was already known, have gotten any capital back, according to data from Sydecar, a platform for special purpose vehicles. Investors who got in earlier? 60%. In other words, timing beat access.
This is what happens when late capital chases venture’s top names through increasingly complex deal structures. That’s already been happening with Anthropic and OpenAI, both trading through multi-layered SPVs as investors scramble for access.
SpaceX’s precedent suggests that late entrants may be setting themselves up for the same disappointing returns. The silver lining is that once these mega IPOs happen, secondary trading concentration should ease, allowing a wider set of startups to benefit from secondary liquidity instead of three names absorbing most of it.
Some secondary buyers are already looking toward the market’s next winners. AI valuations have gotten too rich for some to stomach, and fintech, defense, prediction markets, and crypto are picking up the capital instead.
Our next top 10 list of startups likely to dominate secondary trading captures that shift, and several carry IPO probabilities above 90% within the next five years.
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The UK government has revealed a raft of new measures, including changes to tax, visa and share schemes, designed to help grow the country’s startup ecosystem.
In the first Autumn Budget under Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government, finance minister John Healey set out the plans to help startups launch and scale, while keeping homegrown success stories in the UK.
“Britain does not lack great entrepreneurs. Too often we invent technologies the world wants here in the UK, and then see the jobs and the profits go somewhere else,” Healey said in his speech. “From the startups of today to the scaleups of tomorrow to the billion-pound companies of the 2030s, I want to see them succeed and stay in Britain.”
The finance minister announced plans for more capital, pledging an additional £20.4 billion (about $27.1 billion) for the National Wealth Fund and the British Business Bank. The UK’s Sovereign AI Unit will also receive an additional £140 million to invest in strategically important areas. Since its launch earlier this year, the Sovereign AI Fund has backed several startups, including chip developer Olix and drug discovery company Isomorphic Labs.
“More capacity for the British Business Bank, and a commitment to work with pension funds to crowd in capital, means more capital for companies at the point they need to scale,” AlbionVC partner Robert Whitby-Smith said.
- A retrospective on Snapchat’s speed filter and its role in social media accountability. More people are filing lawsuits accusing tech giants of harming their children. Maynard v. Snapchat is where it all started, going over 100 miles per hour. [Bloomberg]
- PE’s HVAC, dentistry and plumbing roll-ups are fueled by baby boomers. As more in the generation retire, PE firms are waiting to scoop up their small businesses. [The New York Times]
- Sam Altman is annoyed that Gen Z doesn’t think AI is cool. The OpenAI CEO thinks that in the current job market, graduates should embrace AI disruption instead of being stuck on “the thing that was cool five years ago.” [Fortune]
Cloud and AI security platform developer Upwind secured a $400 million Series C led by Bessemer Venture Partners.
Toronto-based investing and banking company Wealthsimple raised a C$425 million ($303 million) round led by Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC at a C$13.8 billion ($9.8 billion) valuation.
Defense tech startup Firehawk, which focuses on propulsion manufacturing, raised a $150 million Series D led by Advent International and Rochefort Asset Management at a $1.4 billion valuation.
Foundry Robotics, which builds autonomous complex assembly factories, raised a $100 million Series A led by Marlinspike Partners.
Enterprise AI startup Fragment, which specializes in procurement solutions, launched with $56 million in funding, including a Series A led by 8VC and a seed round led by General Catalyst and A*.
Financial services platform developer Casap raised a $56 million Series B led by Base10 Partners.
Easol, the developer of an experience commerce platform for festivals and other entertainment events, raised a $30 million Series A extension consisting of $20 million in equity from investors including Y Combinator, Tiger Global and Foundation Capital, and a $10 million debt facility with Viola Credit.
Aerospace startup Rendezvous Robotics, which builds self-assembling spacecraft, secured a $20 million seed round led by MaC Venture Capital and Toyota Ventures.
Plato, the developer of simulated workspaces for training AI models, received a $16 million Series A led by Nava Ventures.
Atlas Bio, a Switzerland-based startup building an AI foundation model to run virtual clinical trials, launched with $12.5 million, including a $10 million seed led by Creandum and a previously unannounced $2.5 million pre-seed round led by First Momentum Ventures and LEA Partners.
Rocker, the developer of a workplace AI assistant, launched and raised $12.85 million in a round led by Greycroft.
American Advanced Materials, the developer of an AI manufacturing platform for advanced materials like titanium sponge, raised a $12.5 million seed round led by Amity Ventures.
Blue Arbor Technologies, a medtech startup building neuromuscular interfaces to control prosthetics for people with limb loss, raised a $10.5 million Series A led by Ottobock.
Triton Partners agreed to sell Berlin-headquartered high-voltage components provider Trench Group to US energy company GE Vernova for a $9 billion equivalent purchase price.
Mubadala Capital and Trafigura Group suspended plans to sell Porto Sudeste, a Brazil-based iron ore port estimated to be valued at about $5 billion, Bloomberg reported.
NYSE-listed Guidewire agreed to acquire Battery Ventures-backed Hyperexponential, the developer of a property and casualty insurance underwriting platform, for $1.7 billion.
Oakley Capital is working with Goldman Sachs on the potential sale of testing and certification services provider Phenna Group, Bloomberg reported.
AI-focused biotech company Formation Bio raised a $600 million fund to acquire additional drug programs and expand its portfolio of medicines.
Deals under $25 million make up 48.4% of US PE deal count this year as of Sept. 30, the largest share of any size bucket. Deals of $100 million to $500 million account for 24.6%. With 28 transactions in Q3, megadeals are poised to return to the strong levels of H2 2025.
Read more: Q3 2026 US PE Breakdown
