The overlooked bets behind AI’s buildout

Most coverage of the AI buildout focuses on chips. PitchBook’s data shows the capital is moving well beyond that, into power, components, construction, and logistics.

Power is the clearest example. AI campuses need electricity that’s firm and available on timelines utilities can’t meet with new transmission lines, and natural gas is filling that gap. KKR’s reported $9 billion bid for UGI Corporation signals that PE now sees gas infrastructure as a core piece of AI exposure, not just an adjacent bet. VoltaGrid already has 1.4 GW of behind-the-meter gas microgrids running for customers including Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.

The chips themselves depend on a less obvious bottleneck: the optical components that move data between them. Nvidia has invested $2 billion each in optical suppliers Lumentum and Coherent to secure supply, the same kind of scramble seen in GPUs, just one layer down in the stack.

The physical buildout has become one of the cleanest investment theses related to data center spend and investing. Construction and engineering firms tied to data centers are pulling in more PE dollars than any other sector we track, including chips. Fire-and-safety contractors stand out specifically: Every company we reviewed in that niche already has a dedicated data center business.

Logistics is affected, too. Global semiconductor sales doubled year-over-year in April, the fastest pace since 1986, and that demand pushed air freight rates up on transpacific routes as chip shipments compete for cargo space.

Taken together, the opportunity set has reverberated across the market. Read more about how in our Investing in AI and Data Centers analyst note.

Leading companies are expanding manufacturing capacity, strengthening supply chains, and rebuilding infrastructure. Apollo provides financing solutions to help fuel that growth.

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It is getting harder to ignore the momentum behind Polymarket’s US business. We just raised our valuation estimate for the platform to $20.6 billion, up from $12 billion when we initiated coverage.

While we still favor Kalshi for its distribution advantage and higher margins, a combination of explosive domestic growth and improving fee retention has made us much more constructive on Polymarket’s revenue trajectory.

In the 30 days through Oct. 14, Polymarket’s US trading volume surged 140% month-over-month, more than offsetting the 4.3% dip in international trading volume. The outperformance has been led by increased trading on sports combo and crypto event contracts. We have raised our US forecasts and dialed back our international estimates, shifting our view of where the platform’s value lies.

Just as importantly, Polymarket is starting to pay less for that activity. The company cut its US trading rebates on Oct. 19, allowing it to retain more of every dollar of fees it generates. That drives our higher revenue forecast, provided traders stay despite thinner incentives—a key test of whether Polymarket can fund its own growth.

Even so, Kalshi maintains a distinct structural lead in how it reaches users. Its integrations with brokerages like Robinhood and Webull reach retail traders where their capital already sits, building repeat volume and liquidity at lower acquisition cost—a moat Polymarket must keep paying to match.

Of course, market access remains contested in court, with a potential US Supreme Court intervention expected to directly influence the size and shape of the opportunity in earnest in 2027. The possibility of an unfavorable ruling is a real risk that would weaken both investment cases, and one that investors should not discount.

In our full comparative report, we dig into our updated models and the true cost of securing long-term customer access.

Q3 2026 Fintech Report

Fintech VC remained selective in Q3. Startups raised $10.8 billion across 536 deals, with funding slightly down from last quarter. However, deal value is still in line with the quarterly average since 2022.

Exits remained soft, but broader M&A remained active. Stripe’s $8 billion acquisition of OpenRouter signals a high likelihood that large tech-forward incumbents will acquire more AI-native startups, especially in the machine economy.

Dive deeper with our Q3 2026 Fintech Report, which explores where capital is landing, which segments we are bullish on, and how valuations are shaping up.

Oct. 28 | What’s Next for Private Credit? In this webinar, PitchBook and Morningstar DBRS experts will break down shifts in the market as LPs demand more transparency and AI reshapes private credit business models. Register →

Oct. 29 | Anthropic: The IPO VC is watching. As rumors build around an Anthropic IPO, investors are asking what it’s worth, what it could return, and what it means for the rest of the AI economy. Reporter Jacob Robbins and analyst Harrison Rolfes will discuss these questions in a LinkedIn Live event. Register →

Nov. 3-5 | ILPA Summit New York. PitchBook will have representatives onsite throughout the conference. On Nov. 5, Juan Mier, lead analyst for fund strategies, will share insights on the trends and data shaping the private markets. Register →

Our insights and data featured in the press:

• PE firms have raised $222 billion this year through Sept. 30, compared with $330 billion for all of last year. [The Wall Street Journal]

• “They’re still growing, but not growing as fast. So they’re reaching this inflection point,” said analyst Harrison Rolfes about Anthropic. [Business Insider]

• Neolabs have raised a combined $23 billion. [The Economist]

• This year is set to be a record for both the total count and value of first-time financings. [The Wall Street Journal]

• Gaming VC deal value year-to-date is $13.7 billion, across 430 deals. [Fortune]

• Estimated third-quarter lending volume fell 28% year-over-year to $49.77 billion. [Reuters]

• Between 2020 and the end of 2025, the Bay Area had raised $352 billion for VC funds, roughly 46% of all US venture capital. [TechCrunch]

• Through Oct. 6, there have been 68 deals worth $14.6 billion in vitamins and supplements this year. [Reuters]

• The NFL’s 32 Equity has invested in 46 businesses. [Bloomberg]

More of our recent research:

Market updates

Q2 Private Capital Indexes
• Q3 US PE Breakdown
• Q1 2026 PitchBook Benchmarks with preliminary Q2 2026 Data
• Q3 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor

Thematic research

The $100 Billion Entry Fee: Can Anyone Still Compete in AI?
• The Continuation of Continuation Funds
• Private by Choice: Europe’s Rise in PE Take-Privates
• OpenAI: Priced on a Target It Has Not Hit

Industry & tech research

Hyperscalers and Neoclouds: Executive Commentary From Nine AI Infrastructure Players
• Data Center Power Needs Are Redrawing the Energy Storage Map
• H1 2026 Healthcare Funds Report

Credit research

US Credit Markets Weekly Wrap
• US High-Yield Bond Weekly Wrap
• Global CLO Weekly Wrap
• Global Distressed Credit Weekly Wrap
• US Private Credit & Middle Market Weekly Wrap

Coming next week (subject to change)

Q3 2026 Biopharma Report
• Q3 2026 UK Market Snapshot
• Q3 2026 Italy Market Snapshot
• Q3 2026 US VC Secondary Market Watch
• Q3 2026 US PE Middle Market Report
• Q3 2026 Sweden Market Snapshot
• Impact on Technology and VC: Midterm Election Note
• US VC IPO backlog