The IPO backlog is a myth
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🔭The revenue figures in Anthropic’s amended S-1 match our estimates to the dollar. Q3 revenue came in at $16.96 billion against the $16.9 billion we implied from the original filing’s disclosure, and commitments due before 2031 came in at $447.5 billion, just under the $450 billion line we set. Read our analysis of the company’s IPO filing.
Venture has spent three years waiting for the IPO window to reopen, with $6 trillion now tied up in US unicorns alone. The hope is that when the window does reopen, a backlog of IPO-ready companies that have been patiently waiting for years will rush out in a wave and finally return capital to LPs.
Our research argues that this “IPO backlog” is little more than a myth.
- PitchBook’s VC Time to Exit Predictor, which estimates when individual VC-backed companies are likely to exit, gave 254 US companies better-than-even odds of going public by the end of 2025.
- Only 53 did, and just 58 still look likely to list in the next three years.
Nearly 75% of the backlog has raised new funding since 2023, mostly at higher valuations, and deals at Databricks and Scale AI paid out employees and early investors without a listing.
The market they were waiting for has also moved on. AI has put pure-play software companies under pressure to prove their value, while a new generation of AI companies, led by Anthropic, has jumped to the front of the line.
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The AI boom’s biggest beneficiaries may not write software at all.
A recent PitchBook research note maps how the mad dash to build more data centers is channeling private capital into areas such as gas pipelines, fire suppression systems, and even cargo freighters.
Investment in these related markets have ballooned: The combined VC, PE, and M&A investment across data center-exposed companies reached $64.4 billion in 2025, roughly 37x 2016’s total.
To further guide investors, our analysts assembled a list of more than 1,000 data center-exposed companies for PitchBook customers, and we’re offering a free preview of 100 companies to all readers.
Six years after the COVID-19 pandemic emptied the exhibition halls, PE is spending more on events in Europe than it did before the pandemic.
European B2B events have attracted €3.6 billion (about $4 billion) across 21 PE deals so far this year, up from €2 billion across 25 deals in 2019, according to PitchBook data.
Buyer appetite in B2B events businesses is driven by the sector’s resilience to AI and other technological advances disrupting other end markets.
Additionally, the portfolio of brands, customer loyalty and the recurring revenue model are among the main drivers of deals in the space.
But the greatest value lies in market-leading events that consistently drive exhibitor retention, pricing increases, sponsorship expansion and attendee growth.
“These higher-quality events have pricing power. The ROI on these events, if done well, is high from a marketing standpoint,” said Hunter Philbrick, partner at Hellman & Friedman, which emerged from a two-decade hiatus in live events deals with its Hyve acquisition.
- Unknown hackers are still targeting supermarket fridges in Europe. A second wave of attacks hit on Monday across several countries, forcing staff to throw away spoiled food. Freezers at one store in Stockholm reached 50 degrees Celsius. [Reuters]
- This online school operator has received over $1 billion from Texas taxpayers over the last five years as online enrollment has surged since the pandemic, but students are slipping through the cracks and getting left behind. [Bloomberg]
- In their second season of existence, the Golden State Valkyries are WNBA champions. Despite growing pains, the Valkyries defeated the Atlanta Dream in Game 7, cheered on by a growing, purple-clad fanbase. [The Wall Street Journal]
OpenAI has secured $11 billion for its latest funding round, less than half of its $30 billion target, The Wall Street Journal reported. The Financial Times reported that the company reduced the target funding amount in the round by $10 billion.
Baseten, the developer of an AI inference platform, is raising a new round led by Sands Capital at a $30 billion valuation, Bloomberg reported.
Northwood Space, which specializes in infrastructure for satellite networks, secured a $375 million Series C led by Andreessen Horowitz and DFJ Growth at a $2 billion valuation.
Hypersonica, a European startup developing long-range hypersonic missiles, raised €100 million in a Series B led by Lightspeed and General Catalyst,valuing the Munich-based company at roughly €700 million, the Financial Times reported.
Robotics company Tutor Intelligence raised a $75 million Series B led by Andreessen Horowitz.
Biotech Specific Biologics, which develops gene-editing therapies for genetic diseases, raised a $35 million Series A led by Hatteras Venture Partners.
Larridin, the developer of an AI value measurement platform, secured a $30 million Series A led by Pelion Ventures.
Clinical data platform developer NPhase secured a $30 million Series D led by Viking Global Investors.
Fintech startup Pathfinder, which operates a platform for managing Education Savings Account funds, raised a $12 million Series A led by Portage Ventures.
Clark, the developer of AI employees for CPA companies, raised an $11 million seed round led by Touring Capital.
Blackstone is leading a group that agreed to acquire a 49.9% stake in the liquefaction business of LNG Canada from a Mitsubishi unit for $3.1 billion.
TDR Capital agreed to acquire Berlin-based sexual wellness brand Lovehoney Group for roughly €400 million from family office investor Jacobs Capital, Sky News reported.
Charterhouse Capital Partners agreed to sell Amsterdam-based capital markets technology provider Vermeg to Advent International, with a wholly owned subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority participating as a minority co-investor.
Velocity Capital Management acquired a stake in the combined business of LV8 and Mirage, a brand services agency and video publisher, respectively.
Livingbridge has created Apteus, a London-based accounting and advisory group targeting UK small and medium-sized businesses, through seven acquisitions.
Vista Equity Partners- and Elliott Investment Management-backed Cloud Software Group is offering senior secured notes to refinance $2 billion of debt.
SoftBank-backed fintech OPay, which operates a payments platform in Nigeria, halted its IPO due to a regulatory inquiry.
Shopify-backed retail wholesale startup Faire is considering an IPO in the next year, Fortune reported. The company was last valued at $5.2 billion.
Mahle and Schott Pharma, both German industrial companies, are separately exploring IPOs of their Indian operations that could raise up to $400 million each, Bloomberg reported.
Omen AI, which develops tools to monitor cooling fluids in data centers, agreed to acquire peer Aquatic Labs, which is backed by Future Planet Capital, in a $16 million deal.
Interlock Equity exited data and AI services company Lovelytics to CDW.
Housing rewards startup Bilt agreed to acquire Adobe-backed Lava, the developer of a customer engagement platform across sports, entertainment and retail businesses.
London-based Igneo Infrastructure Partners closed European Diversified Infrastructure Fund IV on its €6 billion hard cap.
Churchill Asset Management closed on $1.54 billion for the third fund in its Junior Capital Opportunities program, which invests in junior debt for middle-market businesses.
Stockholm-based VC firm Creandumclosed its eighth fund, which backs founders from pre-seed to Series A, on $750 million.
Apollo Global Management launched a €10 billion European private credit platform with backers including the Abu Dhabi Investment Council.
Eurazeo is partnering with the Sustainable Markets Initiative and Bank of America to launch the Lighthouse Initiative, which aims to invest private capital in global nature and biodiversity opportunities.
Data center components supplier Marvell Technology agreed to acquire peer Lumentum Holdings for $115 billion.
Median real estate IRRs have been declining since the global financial crisis rebound, with successive vintages getting worse from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s.
Read more: Q1 2026 PitchBook Benchmarks
