Midterms impact on defense budgets

Midterms Impact on Defense Budgets

Democrats took Congress, in convincing fashion.

So, what does that mean for space and defense spending?

We dug through the last 30 years of defense budgets and party control changes for clues about what could come next.

The quick takeaway: A Democratic Congress will likely dampen defense budget growth, particularly Trump's $1.5T goal, and certainly slow momentum for Golden Dome. But history suggests it does not mean major defense spending cuts are on the horizon.

A look at history: The last time Democrats gained full control or split Congress under a Republican president was in 2018 when Donald Trump was president. Defense funding grew 2.5% after inflation in the first full budget cycle. The last time the Democrats took both chambers under a Republican White House was in the George W. Bush years. Defense funding grew 9% that year.

Plus, defense funding increased in the first full budget cycle after six of the seven midterms shown. We dive into the numbers, trends, and predictions.

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Market-Moving Headlines

• Northwood Space closed a $375M Series C at a $2B valuation (via Payload).
• Argotec raised €50M (via Payload).
• Telesat faces C$2.4B in GEO debt due Dec. 6, while global Lightspeed service slipped to Q2 2028 (via Payload).
• Tumbleweed closed a €6.9M seed round (via Payload).
• China lays out its plans to put taikonauts on the Moon before 2030.
• SpaceX is reportedly in talks to buy Boost Mobile, or use its network.
• SaxaVord Spaceport nabbed £60M ($80.4M) in funding.
• MuRay raised €7.1M (~$7.9M).
• Astroscale’s UK subsidiary received £15M ($20M) from the UK MoD.
• Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket second stage has arrived in Virginia for testing.
• Arkadia Space got £2.2M ($2.9M) from Valencia, for green propulsion.
• ULA Vulcan's return to flight will be NET Nov. 13, carrying Amazon Leo sats.
• Space Mobility emerged from stealth with a plan to build interlocking Moon-regolith tiles.

Poll

Where are defense budgets headed over the next two years?

(Click one link below to cast your vote. Once you click, your vote will be automatically recorded.)

• Modest growth
• Flat
• Modest decline

Poll results: Last week, we asked: What’s the main driver of the disconnect between falling public space stocks and booming private funding?

• 43% said the SpaceX proxy trade unwinding
• 25% said natural ebbs and flows of public market sentiment
• 16% said hardware-focused VC funds with capital to deploy inflating private businesses
• 11% said higher interest rates pressuring non-AI frontier tech
• 5% said stronger companies staying private longer

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