Why averages make bad plans look good

As 2027 planning gets underway, averages can make fragile plans look convincing.

A single win rate, average deal size or rep quota can make a revenue plan add up even when the qualified market underneath it cannot support the target.

Venture funds face the same problem: one clean model can hide how much outcomes change when entry valuations, dilution, ownership, concentration or follow-on decisions move away from the base case.

The common risk is treating an assumption as if it were a fact. Plans become more useful when the inputs are tested against reality, the variables that matter most are made explicit and the model is exposed to different scenarios rather than one expected outcome.

For founders, that means rebuilding growth plans from the market upwards: who can genuinely buy, how much those accounts are worth and what conversion rates the market can realistically support. For investors, it means testing whether portfolio construction and return expectations still work when assumptions move against you.

This week, we’ve pulled together practical resources to help both groups identify where their plans are most fragile before those assumptions turn into expensive decisions.

Elsewhere in this edition, you’ll find updates from across European tech and venture, plus our latest snapshot of European funding rounds.

With 💖
David & Andreas

Before adding headcount or committing to growth, test whether the market can actually support the plan. That means looking beyond top-down targets to the size, quality and buying behaviour of the customers underneath them.

• Does your 2027 revenue plan actually add up? How to stress-test the maths
  Work backwards from targets to test whether the market can generate enough pipeline.

• The ICP blind spot hiding in your portfolio
  Check whether your ICP reflects real fit rather than early assumptions.

• Right customer, right time, right message
  Focus resources on the customers most likely to buy now.

A fund model can look convincing while depending on assumptions that are too neat. Test whether the strategy still works when valuations, dilution, ownership, portfolio construction or follow-on decisions move away from the base case.

• 5 fund strategy mistakes to catch before LP conversations
  Spot contradictions between fund size, portfolio strategy, team and LP fit.

• Fund Modelling in VC: Assumptions sheet construction
  See which assumptions have the biggest impact on fund outcomes.

• VC Monte Carlo Simulator: Thousands of simulations to stress-test your venture strategy
  Test how your strategy performs across different portfolio outcomes.

Why constraints can make vertical AI stronger

Building for healthcare means trading breadth for the depth required in a highly specialised market.

Andreas Cleve, Co-Founder and CEO of Corti, explains how clinical accuracy, workflow integration and in-house compliance can turn constraints into core company capabilities.

What makes a strong founder–VC partnership?

Founders need clarity on where investors can genuinely help, while VCs need to know when their experience is relevant.

Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen of SuperSeed discuss how both sides can build a more effective partnership.

The seed investor’s dilemma: When to sell your winners

Holding on to winners maximises potential upside, but without liquidity, paper gains cannot deliver returns to LPs.

Romain Lavault of Partech and Joe Schorge of Isomer Capital discuss how seed funds can use secondaries, liquidity planning and disciplined selling to balance DPI with long-term upside.

European resilience is not a fundraising strategy

Investors need more than a compelling idea or a strong company. They need a clear problem, a credible solution and a reason to act now.

Denes Ban of RAISE explains why fundraising should be treated as a measurable system, how to identify conversion bottlenecks and why numbers, storytelling and urgency must work together.

• ALLOX closes $10.5m Seed to scale allosteric drug discovery

• Bleu Robotics raises €5m to speed factory robot training

• FitnessKPI raises €1.3m for US expansion and AI

We tracked 40+ rounds this week. See the latest deals →

EUVC Summit & Awards Show 2027 | April 21, London