DeBriefed: Amazon’s ‘sigh of relief’ | China’s clean-tech emissions dent | Nature COP stalemate

Welcome to DeBriefed, an essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

Victory for Brazil’s president Lula raised hopes for tackling Amazon deforestation.

China’s clean-energy exports in 2026 are expected to avoid 450m tonnes of CO2.

Carbon Brief reports from Yerevan as COP17 nears its finale.

Key dates for next week and pick of the job vacancies.

This week

Brazil election ‘surprise’

DEFORESTATION HOPE: Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was reelected in a “surprise victory” on Sunday, reported Climate Home News. The outlet said that the result has raised hopes the country can meet its flagship target to end deforestation by 2030 and advance international fundraising to protect rainforests.

‘SIGH OF RELIEF’: It added that Lula, in his acceptance speech, said that “we will show the world how climate policy is handled in this country” and highlighted the drop in deforestation under his previous four years as leader. The Associated Press quoted Brazilian scientist Dr David Lapola saying: “The Amazon can breathe a sigh of relief!”

Around the world

• ‘OFF TRACK’: A UN assessment shows that national climate plans for 2035 would cut emissions by 6% below 2019 levels, leaving countries “far off track” for meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, reported the Press Trust of India.

• COP31 ‘FIGHT’: The African Group has asked the UN to open negotiations at COP31 for “contentious talks” on adaptation finance and trade, “lining up a potential fight over the agenda”, according to Climate Home News.

• ‘RULED OUT’: Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that EU climate chief, Wopke Hoekstra, has “ruled out” new climate finance pledges at COP31.

• ‘CHEAPER ENERGY’: UK chancellor John Healey has announced a “new course on energy” for the UK, focused on “cheaper” power, reported Carbon Brief. The Sunday Times claimed Healey is among cabinet ministers backing the Rosebank oil field.

• ‘HEALTH HARMS’: The “health harms” caused by climate change are “accelerating”, according to the findings of a new Lancet report covered by ABC News.

£2 billion

The amount of UK climate finance that was met with “questionable accounting” from 2021-2026, according to Carbon Brief.

Latest climate research

• A study of 82 Austrian adults found that higher bedroom temperatures during sleep were associated with lower self-reported productivity the following day | Journal of Environmental Psychology

• Tanzanian agropastoralists are migrating in response to “environmental degradation”, according to a survey of 1,000 households | Ecology & Society

• Scientists have created a first-of-its-kind map of how rewilding projects are monitored and evaluated | Conservation Biology

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

China’s exports in 2026 of clean-energy technologies, such as solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, are on track to cut emissions beyond its borders by 2%, revealed a new analysis for Carbon Brief. If the latest trends continue for the rest of the year, then Chinese clean-tech exports in 2026 alone will avoid around 450m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) – roughly equivalent to Brazil’s annual emissions.

Spotlight

Nature COP gridlocked

This week, Carbon Brief reports from the COP17 biodiversity summit in Yerevan, Armenia – as talks enter their final day without a clear path to a deal in sight.

Delegates at COP17 are lucky that Yerevan is a late-night city. Restaurants in Republic Square stay open well after 11pm, welcoming weary delegates coming out of a cold conference venue after marathon negotiation sessions.

The summit is scheduled to end today, but the expectation is that talks will continue into the weekend.

Negotiations have been gridlocked. Country ministers are still debating the major issues, such as who should provide finance for protecting biodiversity, how genetic information from nature should be valued and how Indigenous peoples can be represented at the talks.

Finance

One issue that has dominated the talks is finance, after developed nations have failed to ramp up their funding to help developing countries protect nature.

Talks at this summit have revolved around a key article in the biodiversity convention – Article 20 – that spells out who pays for implementing the nature deal.

Developed countries are seeking to amend a 2006 list of countries that “shall provide” nature finance to include major emerging economies, such as Qatar and China.

In response, these countries have argued that developed economies must first honour their existing legal obligations, before calling for structural changes to donor rules.

Norwegian negotiator Gaute Hanssen – who is presiding over a “working group” tasked with resolving issues on finance and other heated agenda items – has repeatedly asked countries to do “yoga” to “bring flexibility”.

Last night, a “non paper” text by ministers on finance spelled out options for how far countries could bend – “encouraging” non-donor countries to contribute on a “voluntary basis” and “inviting” countries to signal interest to be included on the list.

Observers say it seems unlikely that the issue around “broadening the contributor base” can be resolved at COP17.

Global review

One tangible expected outcome from Yerevan is the “global review” – the first “stocktake” of progress on biodiversity targets for 2030.

As of publication, it is still being discussed. The COP17 president intended to bring the text forward for agreement at a plenary session on the evening of 28 October.

But this did not happen due to a range of setbacks. Carbon Brief understands these included Brazil’s opposition over a lack of progress on finance, as well as countries such as India opposing a paragraph on harmful subsidy reform.

Negotiations continue. The latest draft text contains 28 brackets, indicating there are still areas of disagreement.

Data disputes

Another major tension is a decision on “digital sequence information” (DSI), or genetic data derived from nature.

In 2024, countries agreed to a historic, first-of-its-kind global fund to ask companies to pay for their use of DSI, known as the Cali fund.

The voluntary fund has the potential to raise billions for nature annually, if companies chose to contribute. However, in the two years and two weeks since, the fund has raised less than $11,000.

The final plenary session, where countries are due to agree on the final documents, is currently scheduled for tonight. But with stark divisions remaining, consensus looks uncertain.

Carbon Brief is hosting a live event on Tuesday 3 November at 3pm GMT to discuss all of COP17’s final outcomes.

Watch, read, listen

‘CHANGING THE WORLD’: Amazonian publication Sumaúma said that Lula’s reelection has “changed the world map of politics”.

ELECTROSTATE ERA: Researchers wrote in Time about how the “rise of electrostates could redraw the global economy”.

MEDIA LENS: For the BMJ, academic Dr James Painter wrote on “why more and accurate media coverage of climate change matters”.

Coming up

• 3 November: US midterm elections

• 5-6 November: Global pollinator conference, Rome, Italy

Pick of the jobs

• Informed Climate Journalism Network, training programme | Location: Online

• S-Curve Economics, head of steel diplomacy | Salary: £70,000-£80,000. Location: Remote, London one day a month

• Spanish National Research Council, PhD position in AI-based prediction and climate change attribution of extreme events | Salary: €1,655 per month. Location: Madrid

This week on Carbon Brief

China Briefing: Plenum ‘Long March spirit’ | Clean-tech exports surge | What China wants at COP31

The online version of Carbon Brief’s China Briefing email newsletter, capturing the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Sign up for free.

Experts: What China wants from the COP31 climate talks

Six leading experts on China explained what they believe the country wants from COP31 and what signals they will be watching for.

Analysis: China’s clean-tech exports in 2026 to avoid as much CO2 as Brazil emits in a year

New analysis for Carbon Brief showing China’s exports in 2026 would avoid 450MtCO2 has been covered by Reuters, the Associated Press and Bloomberg.

UK budget 2026: Key climate and energy announcements

Carbon Brief ran through the key climate- and energy-focused announcements from the UK’s latest budget.

Cropped: ‘Slow progress’ at COP17 | Lula’s ‘unprecedented’ win | Protected-area finance falls

The online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter, a digest of food, land and nature news from the last fortnight. Sign up for free.

Analysis: How the UK spent more than £11.6bn on climate aid since 2021

Figures obtained by Carbon Brief showed that the UK has spent £12.8bn on climate aid for developing countries since 2021.

Revealed: UK relied on £2bn of ‘questionable accounting’ to hit its climate-aid goal

How “questionable accounting” allowed the UK to beat its £11.6bn target. The analysis is covered as an “exclusive” by the Independent.

Q&A: Why are UK energy bills so high – and how could they be lowered?

Carbon Brief explored the drivers of high energy bills in the UK and the options available to cutting them.

Guest post: Greenland ice sheet shrinks for 30th year in a row

Scientists explained Greenland’s ice loss in the 12-month period to August 2026.

Cited: IPCC talks stuck | 1.5C ‘imminent and unavoidable’ | New UK Arctic strategy

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to [email protected]