Axios Pro Rata: Midterm predictions
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket officially don't care which side of a bet wins.
- There is no "house." They get their cut either way.
- It's a business model that's attracted billions of VC dollars.
Yes, but: Kalshi and Polymarket should be pulling hard for Democrats in today's midterm elections. Even if that feels counterintuitive.
Catch up quick: Prediction markets burst into the public consciousness two years ago, when their users correctly "picked" Donald Trump to beat Kamala Harris. It bestowed credibility at a time when public trust in traditional polling had cratered.
Fast forward: More recently, however, they had electoral misses in Brazil and Israel. Three would be a trend.
- Both platforms currently have markets on Democrats sweeping Congress, with "yes" at around 75%.
- If that's how today plays out, it would further cement prediction market legitimacy. A Republican win in either chamber, however, would dump them into the same pot as pollsters — even if 75% probability includes a sizable improbability.
Zoom in: Democrats are often more hostile to prediction markets than are Republicans, but companies like Kalshi and Polymarket don't have too much to fear from a Democrat-controlled Congress.
- Yes, there would probably be an uncomfortable hearing or two. But neither chamber would have veto-proof majorities, and the Trump administration has been very sympathetic to the industry.
- The real constraints, if any, are more likely to come via the Supreme Court.
The bottom line: Political predictions generate much less revenue for Kalshi and Polymarket than do sports predictions, but they have a much longer tail.
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images
CVR Energy (NYSE: CVI), controlled by Carl Icahn, agreed to buy two U.S. refineries and a related marketing business from Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) for $4.2 billion.
Why it's the BFD: Refining margins are wide, due to supply and demand imbalances caused by the Russia/Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East.
Zoom in: The refineries are located in Minnesota and North Dakota, and the acquired businesses generated around $1.2 billion in EBITDA for the 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2026.
The bottom line: "Companies of all sizes have been on the hunt to acquire more refineries to build bigger fuel-making businesses, given the almost intractable constraints in global capacity." — Collin Eaton, WSJ
• Applied Compute, a developer of custom open-source AI models for enterprises, raised $350m at a $3.25b valuation. Elad Gil led, joined by Kleiner Perkins, Lux Capital, Hanabi Capital, Nvidia, Blackstone, Shopify Ventures, HubSpot Ventures, Diffusion, Definition, Timeless, Layer Global, Neo, Abstract, Nova, Quantum Light, First Harmonic, and Swish. axios.link/4yVq1nG
• Ornn, a compute-trading startup, is raising a triple-tranched $150m in Series A funding led by Thrive Capital and General Catalyst, per Axios Pro. The final tranche could be at a valuation north of $1b. axios.link/4imy8Vf
• Tutor Intelligence, a Watertown, Mass.-based developer of warehouse robotics, raised $75m in Series B funding. A16z led, joined by USV and Neo. axios.link/4jUnnKZ
⚡ Lightship, a maker of battery-poweredRVs and mobile power systems,is raising $50m in Series C funding, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4efOjRX
• Trajectory, a tool to post-train models, raised $45m in Series A funding at a $300m post-money valuation. Sequoia Capital led, joined by Nvidia, Bessemer Venture Partners, and Bain Capital Ventures. axios.link/4sNMWjh
• Corridian, a Boston-based maker of "ultra-large" autonomous underwater vehicles, raised $38m in seed funding, per Axios. Point72 Ventures led, joined by Balerion Space Ventures, Harpoon Ventures, DCVC, and Marlinspike. axios.link/3Ut6AV9
🚑 Specific Biologics, a Toronto-based developer of gene-editing therapies for rare diseases, raised US$35m in Series A funding. Hatteras Venture Partners led, joined by Lumira Ventures, adMare BioInnovations, Genesys Capital, BDC, DeepWork Capital, and Seido Capital. axios.link/4yUhcKQ
• Larridin, a South SF-based AI value measurement platform, raised $30m in Series A funding. Pelion Ventures led, joined by a16z, Gradient Ventures, GFT, W23, Thayer, DG Daiwa Ventures, Alumni Ventures, and Cougar Capital. axios.link/4BGYwAO
🚑 StimCardio, an LA-based maker of atrial fibrillation wearables, raised $30m in Series A funding. Metis Medtech led, joined by Catalyst Health Ventures. axios.link/4zgp7Cx
• Guava, an LA-based developer platform for voice agents, raised $12.5m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Acrew Capital led, joined by Fourish Ventures, WillowTree Ventures, Clocktower Ventures, and insider Commerce Ventures. axios.link/4zriKNx
• Clark, an NYC-based developer of audit agents, raised $11m in seed funding. Touring Capital led, joined by insiders Marathon Management Partners, Rerail, and Sofeon Ventures. axios.link/47R5xl1
• Syncere, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based maker of robotic lamps, raised $11m in pre-seed funding, per Axios Pro. A16z Speedrun led, joined by Draper Associates, Physical World, Sequel, and SeaX Ventures. axios.link/4A2PhJw
• Quint Computing, aGerman quantum computing startup, raised €9.1m. Vsquared led, joined by Quantonation, Nucleus Capital, Faber, Vanagon Ventures, and ZOHO.VC. axios.link/4zoQyL0
• Gallium Defense, a French drone detection startup, raised €7.1m in seed funding. Keen Venture Partners and 360 Capital led, joined by Omnes Capital and Polytechnique Ventures. axios.link/4f1WLnV
🚑 Bioliberty, a U.K. maker of robotic gloves for stroke survivors, raised $3.3m in Series A extension funding from TGH Ventures, Ballad Ventures, 25M Health, and Whiterock. axios.link/4szXMJy
• Roleo, an Estonian developer of career agents for tech professionals, raised €2.9m. Practica Capital led, joined by Inventure. axios.link/4AcObex
• CyberKord, an Italian automation platform for IT and cybersecurity ops, raised €2.7m in pre-seed funding. 360 Capital led, joined by Plus Partners, Addendum Capital, and Vento. axios.link/4BI8BNW
• Athena, a legal AI startup for commercial real estate, raised $2.5m led by a16z Speedrun. axios.link/4zp2IUp
Kodiact, an SF-based materials sourcing startup, raised $2.5m in pre-seed funding. Supply Change Capital led, joined by Green Circle FoodTech Ventures and Velocity Catalyst. axios.link/4ivsCyt
Enginsight, a German cybersecurity platform, raised an undisclosed amount of growth funding led by Verdane, with insiders UVC, HDI, and SIV participating. axios.link/4inWa28
A MESSAGE FROM J.P. MORGAN
Sid Sheth, co-founder of tech company d-Matrix, knew he needed a banking team that could keep up with the demands of the rapidly evolving AI landscape. J.P. Morgan was the right choice because of its speed and scale, which helped the company expand internationally.
1248 Holdings acquired Generate Capital's ownership interests in Ubiquity, a fiber network owner in Texas and Nebraska. axios.link/3UamUdl
Bridgepoint agreed to acquire a majority stake in Batisanté, a French provider of safety and compliance services for residential buildings, from IK Partners. axios.link/4im45x4
Brookfield Asset Management and QIA agreed to invest £2.5b into a U.K. data center project with Drax Group (LSE: DRX). axios.link/47YhoO3
🚑 Cinven agreed to buy Theramex, a London-based pharma company focused on women's health,from PAI Partners and Carlyle for €2.6b. axios.link/4BDCPl6
Grant Thornton completed its $5b buyout of CBIZ, creating one of the country's largest accounting firms. Grant Thornton backer New Mountain Capital made a new investment to support the deal. axios.link/4fLw0nx
GrowthCurve Capital acquired a majority stake in TailorMed, a medication access, affordability, and adherence platform. axios.link/4BFEruK
Hoxton Wealth, a wealth management platform focused on British expats, raised $135m from Aspirity Partners. axios.link/4A2SKb0
🌎 L Squared acquired Edko, a provider of herbicide-based vegetation management services, from Incline Equity Partners. axios.link/4A7itiD
⚡ LS Power offered to buy the stake it doesn't already own in EV charging company EVgo (Nasdaq: EVGO) for $2 per share. axios.link/4yTPqOF
• Main Capital Partners acquired a majority stake in 21south, a Dutch provider of ERP software for waste management and environmental services firms. axios.link/4yW2keM
• OpenGate Capital completed its purchase of Maersk Training, a provider of safety training and gas safety services, from A.P. Møller - Mærsk. axios.link/3U80j0l
Nexus Capital Management acquired CW Holdings, parent company of women's apparel brands Coldwater Creek and Soft Surroundings, from Newtimes Group. axios.link/4zZyC9C
Platinum Equity acquired Warren Valve, a provider of flow control valves, from Allied Group. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed. axios.link/4ijcIsb
SatPort Infrastructure, backed by EQT, agreed to pay around $300m for the ground stations of Speedcast, a Centerbridge Partners portfolio company, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4BDBM4E
Digging into Anthropic's Q3 numbers, which were disclosed yesterday in an S-1 amendment.
⚡ Crescent Energy (NYSE: CRGY) said it's filed confidential IPO papers for its Crescent Royalties subsidiary. axios.link/4ivSNFk
Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOG)is in late-stage talks to acquire Howie AI, an AI scheduling assistant for businesses, per Axios Pro. Howie previously raised a $6m seed round led by True Ventures. axios.link/4BNOSwr
Cognition, valued by VCs at $46b, acquired Corridor, an AI code-security startup that had raised $31m from backers like Conviction, Felicis, Datadog, SV Angel, Sunflower Capital, Timeless, Artisanal Ventures, and Lux Capital. axios.link/4zoW9RL
CrowdStrike (Nasdaq: CRWD) agreed to acquire Dreadnode, a provider of automated AI security testing that had raised $14m from Decibel Partners, Sands Capital, Next Frontier Capital, Indie.vc, and In-Q-Tel. axios.link/47UYEiw
Omen AI, a VC-backed maker of liquid-cooling sensors, acquired Aquatic Labs, a Cambridge, Mass.-based fluid monitoring startup, for $16m in cash and stock. Aquatic Labs had raised $5m from Future Planet Capital, Burnt Island Ventures, Counteract Ventures, Ponderosa Ventures, and Propeller. axios.link/4BE7heT
Salesforce (Nasdaq: CRM) agreed to acquire Cresta, a Sunnyvale, Calif.-based AI call-center company, for a reported $2.7b. Cresta had raised more than $280m from firms like a16z, Sequoia Capital, Greylock, JPMorgan, WiL, QIA, and Tiger Global. axios.link/4yUKZ5S
🚑 Lonza (Swiss: LONN)agreed to acquire five CDMO manufacturing sites in the U.S. from Merck KGaA. axios.link/3UgH9Gi
⚡ Shell (NYSE: SHEL) agreed to sell its 16.7% stake in Australia's North West Shelf LNG project for US$1.45b to Abu Dhabi's XRG. axios.link/4BE4Mcq
• AE Industrial raised $850m for a single-asset CV focused on Blue Raven, a defense market distribution platform. axios.link/48sbiWn
Evertrue Capital, a London-based VC firm led by Yvonne Bajela (ex-Phoenix Court), raised $17m for a debut fund. axios.link/4iuIocS
• Bertram Capital promoted Kevin Yamashita and Ryan Craig to managing partners. bertramcapital.com
• Eclipse promoted Ryan Gibson and Michael Laser to partners. eclipse.capital
Ibrahim Ajami is stepping down as Mubadala's head of ventures to launch Noha, his own fund targeting $500m, per the FT. axios.link/47XoSkn
Big Tech's debt addiction is coming with increased borrowing costs, Emily Peck writes for Axios Markets.
- The bond market is pushing back on the AI trade, but the AI trade pushes on as Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle all line up billions in new bond offerings.
A MESSAGE FROM J.P. MORGAN
Jake Loosararian, co-founder and CEO of Gecko, chose J.P. Morgan early on as his startup's banking team. With the help of his dedicated J.P. Morgan team, Gecko successfully broke into new markets and navigated change with confidence.
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